After another green week, Bitcoin briefly traded above, but then closed back below our local high at $76k. As this stands, this is a false breakout and we really want to see Bitcoin close above that level this week or the chop and consolidation will continue. I’m hesitant to become too bearish here because people are likely shorting Bitcoin aggressively in this area expecting price to play out similarly to what we saw play out in January. However, Bitcoin likes to do what the majority of investors don’t expect so a move higher here wouldn’t surprise me.

Market sentiment remains Neutral, but we did see a brief spike into Greed last week. This is the first time we touched Greed since October of 2025. What’s also significant is that we did break the sentiment downtrend we have been in since November of 2024 with lower highs ever since. It’s too early to conclude that the worst is behind us, but this downtrend break is a good sign that things may be improving here.

The GLI briefly made a new high last week. This is exactly what we want to see for our risk assets. I do believe Bitcoin is trying to follow The GLI higher, but we really want to see this GLI uptrend continue if we want to see 2026 play out differently to previous midterm years like 2014, 2018 and 2022 where The GLI went down. I remain optimistic that 2026 will be better than most investors expect as long as The GLI keeps trending higher.

We saw a pretty large drop in oil prices last week. It seems as though the geopolitical experts and doomers were wrong once again. I’m not saying I could have predicted what oil would do, but I have learned through experience that when it comes to geopolitics, you are better off monitoring data and reacting instead of trying to predict what will happen. Now we just want to see energy prices continue to head lower so inflation fears can cool down which will help weaken the dollar and send The GLI higher.

My base case is still a shallow bear market here in 2026. Especially if The GLI maintains its uptrend and continues to head higher over the next few months. It’s way too early to try and conclude that the bottom is in and it is still very possible that we revisit the lows later in the year, but I have a very hard time envisioning a traditional Bitcoin bear market with our lack of mania in 2025 and the strength of the support area between $50k and $70k. We’ll continue to take things one week at a time and navigate the various possible outcomes to the best of our abilities.

I trimmed a tiny bit of my Bitcoin allocation this morning. Not because I think it will go down, but because I am trying to keep my cash position near its target incase we haven’t seen the worst of this bear market quite yet. I still have plenty of upside exposure incase the bottom is in fact in, but I also have a cash position I am happy with incase we get an opportunity to buy lower.

P.S. If you made it to the end of this report, thank you for reading and I hope you got some value from it. If you’d like to view my exact portfolio changes, my entire portfolio outside of just crypto and would like to learn more about my Portfolio Automation System, checkout the Crypto Enjoyers program and community. You can learn more about it here:

I hope you have an amazing week and the future looks bright. 🤝