After a small selloff, Bitcoin closed its weekly candle just below the 200W MA at ~$63k. This is to be expected as we exit July and enter August which is known for its volatility in mid-term years. We are entering the final stages of this bear market and this is when many investors begin to throw in the towel due to boredom and/or bear market fatigue. Before we know it, it will be October and the worst will be behind us. We just have to remain patient and resilient for a few more weeks.

Market sentiment remains in fear. Investors are very concerned that we we will see much lower prices due to all the concerning narratives circulating right now. This is to be expected and will likely only get worse before Bitcoin confirms a bottom. If you feel fearful right now that is completely normal and it is exactly why we rely on systems and not our emotions to make good investing decisions. Many investors will make fear-driven mistakes in the coming weeks and we need to make sure we aren’t one of them.

The GLI just made a new high today. This is a pretty big deal given the fact that The GLI did not make a new high in the last 3 mid-term years, 2022, 2018 and 2014 . To be clear, The GLI is not the only driver of markets, but liquidity expansion is very bullish for risk assets. Due to Bitcoin’s lagged relationship with The GLI, we would expect to see these new highs really start to impact Bitcoin in October. Which happens to align perfectly with the 4-year cycle. I’m not sure if timing the bottom will be that easy, but this new high for The GLI further solidifies my Shallow Bear market base case.

We will be receiving an update to the FED’s preferred measure of employment, The Unemployment Rate, on Friday, August 7th. The market is expecting The Unemployment Rate to increase from 4.2% YoY to 4.3% YoY. This increase would take some pressure off of the FED and make it less likely the FED will hike rates. If the print comes in below expectations, that could spook markets a little as it would further increase the likelihood of a rate hike later this year.

Bitcoin is back in the Very Cheap region. This volatile August and September window could be our last chance to buy Bitcoin in the Very Cheap region for this cycle. It’s hard to know exactly how low Bitcoin will go by the end of the year, but I do think these prices will look like great entries a year or two from now. We just have to make sure we don’t overcomplicate things at this stage by trying to go all-in with the perfect entry or sell to buy back a little lower. Many investors make those kinds of mistakes during this phase of the bear market.

No changes were made to my portfolio this week. I am tempted to accumulate more now that we are back in the Very Cheap region, but I already accumulated quite a bit at these levels. I really want to hold onto my remaining dry powder incase we get a deeper drop later in the year. If that drop doesn’t happen, I’ll happily deploy that dry powder a little higher knowing the bottom is likely in. The peace of mind that comes from having some dry powder to deploy is a game changer during this phase of the bull market.

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I hope you have an amazing week and the future looks bright. 🤝