The Weekly Close

After some profit-taking from Bitcoin holders last week, Bitcoin was still able to close it’s weekly candle quite close to our $100k resistance. The large wick to the downside shows that there is still plenty of demand and buyers are still in control. Additional consolidation below $100k would make sense before we have the strength to break through.

Temperature Check

It is clear that sentiment has cooled off a little compared to last week and I am seeing a bit of anxiety starting to creep into the minds of market participants who FOMO’d in recently or feel overexposed to riskier projects or excessive leverage. Sentiment can remain in “extreme greed” for extended periods, but we tend to see increased volatility and mini shakeouts along the way.

Liquidity & The DXY

After rallying into our “Risk-Off” region last week, the DXY saw a clear rejection back below our “major pivot level”. A weak dollar increases global liquidity and tends to be a strong tail wind for risk assets like Bitcoin. I’d like to see the DXY confirm that breakdown by closing another weekly candle below $106.50.

Economic Data

We have very important data releases this week with the unemployment rate as well as other labor market data coming up this Friday Dec 6th. These releases tend to have an especially large impact on Bitcoin and other markets when they are above or below market expectations (current expectation is 4.1%). Market participants are eagerly waiting to find out if the last spike was a one-off event or the beginning or a larger rise in the unemployment rate.

When in Doubt, Zoom Out

It can be very easy to make emotional decisions/mistakes during bull markets when one is zoomed into low timeframes or focused on short-term price action. My thesis that we will likely see a top in late Q1 early Q2 of 2025 allows me to remain patient and calm in my existing positions through the volatility. I am happy to adjust this thesis as we get closer to that time frame if the macro backdrop worsens or price action requires that I do so.

My Current Portfolio

No changes were made to my portfolio this week. I like to keep my cash position between 20-30% in bull markets so I am quite close to my 30% maximum. I will now patiently wait for altcoin buying opportunities once we see a larger correction from Bitcoin to spook altcoin holders. Nothing goes up in a straight line and it has been quite awhile since we’ve seen a mini shakeout. It’s great to see Ethereum finally moving as Bitcoin and Solana consolidate.

P.S. If you made it to the end of this weekly report, thank you so much for reading and feel free to reply to this email with any questions or feedback. I’m expecting an exciting few months ahead for Bitcoin and traditional markets. 🫡