After a strong retest of our $76k range high support level last week, Bitcoin closed just above $78.5k which further confirms this breakout. As long as we continue closing weekly candles above $76k, I will maintain a bullish bias. Bitcoin has a lot of resistance right above it here thanks to our old trading range and some important moving averages so we'll have to see how price reacts to those one at a time.

Market sentiment remain neutral. This is pretty incredible given the fact that Bitcoin just broke out of its range to the upside and tested $80k for the first time in months. This sentiment is exactly what we want to see for this rally to head higher. As long as investors remain doubtful and sentiment remains neutral, Bitcoin should be able to continue climbing the wall of worry.

The GLI is still consolidating near its highs. We want to see it breakout so that it can provide the fuel for Bitcoin to trend higher and maybe even end this bear market earlier than most investors expect. I want to see Bitcoin close above the 50W MA before jumping to conclusions, but new highs on The GLI would be a great stepping stone towards that trend change.

We will be receiving an update to the FED’s preferred measure of employment, the unemployment rate, on Friday, May 8th. The market will be watching this print closely to see how the labor market is handling rates being higher for longer thanks to the stubborn inflation we are experiencing. The expectation is for the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.3% so that print or better is what we want to see.

Bitcoin continues to follow our shallow bear market base case quite nicely. The sell-off went lower than initially expected so it wouldn’t surprise me if the rally wasn’t able to get as high as initially expected. The higher Bitcoin goes on this rally, the higher the chances we end up seeing a shallow bear market since it gives Bitcoin more room to confirm a higher low later in the year. I won’t seriously consider the bottom being in until Bitcoin is able to reclaim the 50W MA. In the meantime, we’ll remain prepared for multiple outcomes and see what Bitcoin has in store.

No changes were made to my portfolio this week. All my allocations are still near where I want them to be which isn’t surprising since Bitcoin hasn’t moved much since last week’s report. I’d love to have an opportunity to buy Bitcoin at lower prices, but since so many investors are sure that will happen, I’m hesitant to assume that it will. I’m glad I accumulated over the past few months although I knew there was a serious chance Bitcoin could have headed lower. Those purchases look very good after this recent rally.

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I hope you have an amazing week and the future looks bright. 🤝