After another relatively quiet week of price action, Bitcoin closed another weekly candle below our $69k support level. This is a confirmed breakdown, so we want to see that level reclaimed as quickly as possible. In the meantime, Bitcoin will likely spend some time chopping around between that $69k level and the 200W moving average at ~$58.5k.

Market sentiment remains extremely fearful. This will likely be the case until Bitcoin gets its relief rally. This is when it is important to manage our emotions and stick to whatever plan we laid out before this extreme fear set in. It’s tempting to panic and change one’s plans when emotions get extreme, but reacting to those emotions tends to backfire in the long-term.

The GLI has flatlined over the past week. It is still pointing towards an imminent Bitcoin relief rally, but we are still waiting to see what the rest of 2026 will have in store. We know past midterm years had tightening liquidity due to FED rate hikes and QT, but this year the FED is expected to cut rates and continue QE. We’ll continue to monitor The GLI to help navigate this unique midterm year.

The US Dollar continues to consolidate near its 2025 low. A breakdown from this nearly year long range would be a huge tailwind for The GLI and would create a very different liquidity backdrop compared to previous midterm years. However, forming a bottom and rallying here would tighten liquidity and likely lead to the usual midterm year price action. Monitoring The UD Dollar over the next few weeks will be incredibly important for navigating the remainder of 2026.

The base case remains unchanged. The most likely path from here is still a strong relief rally and a shallow bear market in 2026. I’m open to the possibility of a normal Bitcoin bear market if the FED decides to tighten liquidity and The US Dollar rallies, but until that happens, the base case will remain as is. Being prepared for multiple outcomes and remaining open-minded is incredibly important when navigating the volatility of Bitcoin bear markets.

I bought more Bitcoin this morning. It was pretty difficult to do given the current price action, but I know sticking to my plan will payoff in the long-term. I feel the temptation to wait for lower prices, but I know they aren’t guaranteed so I am taking advantage of this selloff into the Cheap region while I have it. It’s hard to predict what the market will do in the immediate short-term, but I believe I will be happy with these purchases a year or two from now.

P.S. If you made it to the end of this report, thank you for reading and I hope you got some value from it. If you’d like to view my entire portfolio and would like to learn more about my Portfolio Automation System, checkout the Crypto Enjoyers program and community. You can learn more about it here:

I hope you have an amazing week and the future looks bright. 🤝