After another green week, Bitcoin closed its weekly candle just under $71k. It’s nice to see this upward momentum, but we are still within the same trading range we have been in for the past few weeks. Until we get a close above the Range High at $76k or a close below the Range Low at $60k, this price action should be viewed as chop and consolidation.

Sentiment remains comfortably in the Neutral region. Investor sentiment has now been fully reset while price has traded sideways and this usually creates the fuel for continuation to the downside. It’s hard to know exactly what will happen in the short-term, but it is important to keep our emotions in check and not let FOMO nudge us into taking risks we should not be taking at this moment in time.

The GLI had a nice bounce last week due to a drop in the US Dollar once the ceasefire was announced. We want to see new highs for The GLI here soon, but as of right now it is too early to tell if this is just a bounce before it heads lower or the start of a new uptrend. I do believe Bitcoin’s price action for the remainder of the year will come down to whether we see tightening liquidity conditions like previous midterm years or if we will see rising liquidity. The good news is that we don’t have to predict what will happen, we can just monitor the data and adjust accordingly.

The US Dollar Index sold off last week once the ceasefire was announced. This is what created The GLI bounce that was mentioned earlier. The Dollar is now sitting at support right at both its 20W and 50W moving averages. We want to see The Dollar breakdown here and continue to ease liquidity conditions, but if it holds support here and rallies that would greatly tighten liquidity and put downward pressure on risk assets. The path The Dollar takes will likely be driven by what path the geopolitical situation takes and since that is nearly impossible to predict we’ll focus on monitoring the data and waiting for more clarity.

Bitcoin is in the Cheap region based on where it is relative to its 200W MA. It has held up impressively well over the past few weeks even with the selloff we saw in traditional markets in much less volatile assets like the S&P 500 and Gold. My preferred outcome is that we sweep the lows and enter the Very Cheap region sooner rather than later. That would allow us to continue accumulating and would create a spring for a much stronger rally higher, but in the meantime, I’ll just patiently wait for the market to provide more clarity as to what comes next.

I sold some Ethereum this morning. Since Bitcoin is still in the Cheap region I will continue to make small rebalances here and there to keep my allocations near their targets, but there likely won’t be any significant buying or selling until Bitcoin enters the Fair Value or Very Cheap regions. In the meantime, it feels good to lock in some small profits and maintain my dry powder for better opportunities.

P.S. If you made it to the end of this report, thank you for reading and I hope you got some value from it. If you’d like to view my exact portfolio changes, my entire portfolio outside of just crypto and would like to learn more about my Portfolio Automation System, checkout the Crypto Enjoyers program and community. You can learn more about it here:

I hope you have an amazing week and the future looks bright. 🤝