The Weekly Close

After a strong bounce off of our $100k Range Mid, Bitcoin closed its weekly candle just under our $109k Range High. This is our 5th test of this resistance level and it should only be a matter of days before Bitcoin breaks through and enters price discovery. Consolidation right under an all time high is usually a very bullish sign and usually results in a decisive breakout once the resistance level finally breaks.

Market Sentiment

After a brief dip back into the Fear region, market sentiment has quickly returned back to Neutral. It is truly incredible that we have Bitcoin just under $109k and ready to enter price discovery with almost no Greed or FOMO in sight. The consolidation did its job resetting sentiment and now most market participants are completely unaware of Bitcoin’s looming breakout.

The Global Liquidity Index

The GLI made another new high last week which further solidifies the thesis that Bitcoin is preparing for a major breakout. This indicator has not failed us yet this cycle and although many start to doubt this indicator whenever Bitcoin consolidates, it has not given us a false signal yet. The combination of Bitcoin at its last resistance and The GLI making new highs makes me quite optimistic about what comes next.

Macro

This week we will be receiving an update to the most important data print each month, the Unemployment Rate. This is the FED’s preferred measure of employment and it provides the best overall view of the state of the labor market. It has remained at or below 4.2% for the past year, but the market is expecting a new high this print at 4.3%. We really don’t want to see this come in above expectations and a 4.3% print should put more pressure on the FED to cut rates sooner.

The Bigger Picture

Bitcoin is still right in the center of our “Expensive” region. It has taken a lot of time to absorb all the sellers that keep offloading Bitcoin at these prices, but it seems as though the selling is almost complete. This is now the longest time period we have spent in the “Expensive” region without selling off. I still expect a visit to the “Very Expensive” region within the next few months once Bitcoin breaks out.

What I’m doing with my portfolio

No changes were made to my portfolio this week. I feel very well positioned for the rally ahead. I still believe Ethereum and Solana will do well for the remainder of the cycle. Ethereum has been receiving very impressive ETF inflows over the past few weeks and staking being added to its ETFs should be a strong catalyst. Solana should also be receiving its ETF sometime soon and I’m very curious to see what the inflows will look like since those will likely launch with staking on Day 1. All we have to do is enjoy our summer and let the market do its thing.

P.S. If you made it to the end of this report, thank you for reading and I hope you got some value from it. If you’d like to learn more, early bird pricing with lifetime access for the Crypto Enjoyers program is still available as I finish creating the final module of the Mental Models course. You can learn more about it here:

I hope you have an amazing week and the future looks bright. 🤝