After briefly trading above the 200W MA last week, Bitcoin ended up closing the week back below it. This has become a very tight and choppy range so we can’t really draw any conclusions from these very small fluctuations to the upside and/or downside. The $60k range low is still our line in the sand to maintain a bullish bias in this range. As we enter the second half of August and first half of September, I expect even more chop and volatility to wreck emotional investors and traders in both directions.

Market sentiment remains in Fear. This isn’t surprising as we enter late August and early September since most investors are aware of the fact that this is a historically difficult time window for Bitcoin. I do believe the majority of the bear market is behind us and I do expect us to maintain the higher low in sentiment that Bitcoin set back in June. Time capitulation can be just as painful, if not more painful, than price capitulation so discipline and having a plan is crucial during this phase of the bear market.

The GLI continues to paint an optimistic picture as to what we can expect for Bitcoin in late September and beyond. The GLI is definitely not the only driver of Bitcoin, but having liquidity be a tailwind is way better than liquidity acting as a headwind. The rising GLI we have right now is the polar opposite to what we saw in late 2022 when the FED was being very hawkish and putting downward pressure on markets. Only time will tell if The GLI ends up mattering or not, but it is a big reason why the shallow bear market thesis remains my base case.

The US Dollar Index continues to look quite weak. The False breakout we saw a few weeks ago was a pretty strong sign that bears were still in control and this recent price action further confirms that. This is one of the main variables putting upward pressure on the The GLI right now so we want to see this dollar weakness trend continue. A break below the 2025 low would likely send risk assets flying so I’ll be monitoring how the dollar trades in this range quite closely to see if momentum continues to the downside.

Bitcoin is still just barely in the Very Cheap 🔵 region. This very low volatility chop is exactly what you expect to see during accumulation periods. Many investors are expecting a big drop sometime soon, but that is not my base case. I’m happy accumulating at these prices given my long time horizon, but I’m also mentally prepared for any surprises the market might throw at us in the coming months. I look forward to selling Bitcoin in the Expensive 🟠 and Very Expensive 🔴 regions one day.

No changes were made to my portfolio this week. It feels like it has been ages since I bought or sold any Bitcoin, but this is to be expected given the fact that Bitcoin hasn’t really moved in nearly 2 months. It can be really tempting to make changes to our portfolio because action feels productive, but in these environments doing nothing and being patient is usually the winning strategy. I look forward to deploying the remaining dry powder at lower prices if the market gives us the opportunity or at higher prices once the bottom is confirmed.

P.S. If you found this report useful, you’ll love the Market Enjoyers program and community. Module 1 of Enjoyer OS, my complete system for compounding crypto, stocks and metals, is live and free to watch on the community about page. The founding rate is available while I publish the remaining modules and goes up once Enjoyer OS is fully live. Watch Module 1 here:

I hope you have an amazing week and the future looks bright. 🤝