The Weekly Close

After a week of chop and indecision, Bitcoin closed its weekly candle just above $94k. We have now seen 4 green weeks in a row so it would make sense for Bitcoin to consolidate sometime soon. Ideally we’d like to stay above our range low at $91k that should act as support, but the most important variable is that we put in a higher low above the low we set back in early April at $74k. That would make sure that we maintain our new uptrend structure and maintain the base case that Bitcoin will put in new highs soon.

Sentiment Check

After the strong bounce we have seen over the past few weeks. Market sentiment has comfortably returned to the Neutral region. The market seems to be very split right now between investors that believe this is just a bounce that will result in a lower high and investors that believe this is a new uptrend that will take Bitcoin to new all time highs. So it makes sense that sentiment is neither greedy nor fearful here.

Global Liquidity Index

After months of trending upwards, the Global Liquidity Index has gone sideways over the past week. It’s too early to claim that it has topped here, but I will be watching this metric closely over the next few weeks to see whether it will maintain this uptrend and head higher or if it is entering a similar retrace to the ones we have seen so far this cycle. This will give us valuable information as to how long this Bitcoin rally can go on for.

Macro

The S&P 500 has had an incredible bounce over the past few weeks after the extreme sell-off we saw prior. It is now facing both its 20-week and 50-week moving averages. It makes sense that we would see some consolidation at these levels. That also aligns nicely with our view that Bitcoin is overdue for some consolidation as well. Just like Bitcoin, we want to see the S&P 500 maintain the low it set back in early April and put in some type of higher low over the next few weeks. For now all we can do is wait and see what the market decides to do.

Bigger Picture

For the first time in a few months, Bitcoin is back in our Expensive region. This doesn’t mean the market has to go down, but it does mean that some profit-taking at these levels wouldn’t surprise me. If the cycle isn’t over, I expect us to see the Very Expensive region over the next few months, but for now we’ll have to wait and see what Bitcoin decides to do. We could see a brief dip back into the Fair Value region to retest some support levels during this upcoming consolidation period.

What I’m doing with my portfolio

After weeks of just sitting back and enjoying the ride. I have decided to lock in some profits this week. This is the first change I have made since buying the dip during the early April bottom and this feels like a great place to take some profits incase we get any surprises this week. I am still quite happy with my 70% upside exposure because I do believe we have higher to go eventually, but it does feel good to lock-in some gains from the risk we took buying the dip during the Extreme Fear. Taking profits at the highs is what gives us the mental fortitude to take advantage of opportunity at the lows.

P.S. If you made it to the end of this report thank you for reading and I hope you got some value from it. If you’d like to learn more, we are now in early bird phase 2 for the Crypto and Macro Enjoyers program as I build out the second course. The portfolio system modules are complete so I am now working through the mental models course. You can learn more about it here:

There will always be surprises in markets so make sure you have a plan that gives you upside exposure while still managing risk in-line with your risk tolerance and goals. I still believe the best is ahead for Bitcoin in 2025, but it will likely be a volatile journey. As always, the future looks bright. 🤝