Knocking on $100k's Door

Bitcoin had a strong weekly close at just over $98,000 yesterday evening. We have had an incredible rally over the past few weeks so some consolidation and cool off would make sense, but price structure remains quite bullish.

The CMC Fear and Greed Index is sitting at 86 which represents “Extreme Greed”. This level of greed does not come around often, but can linger for quite a while when it does. During these time periods I focus on keeping my FOMO in check and taking small profits on my holdings.

Global Liquidity continues to go down during this Bitcoin rally. We are waiting to find out if Bitcoin is currently front-running an increase in global liquidity around the corner or temporarily ignoring an issue that it will have to face eventually.

Initial Jobless Claims (our proxy for the number of layoffs in the US economy) remains well below the average we have seen at the start of recessions. I remain optimistic on the resilience of the labor market which is the preferential backdrop for risk assets.

I remain optimistic that based on current price structure Bitcoin’s most likely direction over the next few weeks will be a grind higher. However, we have to remember that the most likely scenario isn’t the one that always plays out so we have to keep the others in mind.

This is a snapshot of my current portfolio allocations at the time of writing this report. I am quite comfortable knowing that I have enough cash to navigate volatility while also having enough spot exposure to benefit greatly from more market upside.