After a pretty choppy week, Bitcoin closed just above ~$63k near the 200W MA. The market is having a hard time deciding what path to take next. Bitcoin is stuck between resistance at $68k and the 200W MA at $62.5k. Chop and consolidation remains my base case for the rest of the summer as long-term holders accumulate in this area.

Market sentiment remains in Fear. Investors are still unsure whether Bitcoin is bottoming in this area or if it has lower to go. There have also been many scary narratives that are convincing investors that Bitcoin is headed way lower. This is to be expected at this stage of the bear market and will likely only increase as we try to form a bottom.

The GLI continues to slowly head lower. This supports our base case that Bitcoin will likely be consolidating and chopping around over the next few months. We really want to see The GLI rising rapidly before getting too optimistic about a new bull market beginning. In the meantime, we can accumulate at solid prices and position ourselves for the long-term.

We will be receiving an update to the FED’s preferred measure of inflation, Core PCE, on Thursday, June 25th. The market is expecting the YoY number to increase from 3.3% to 3.4% so we want the print to come in-line or below those expectations. Inflation has been a major concern for market participants recently so everyone will be watching this print closely to see how bad the energy shock has impacted prices.

Bitcoin remains right between our Cheap 🟢 and Very Cheap 🔵 regions. It’s hard to know exactly where Bitcoin will bottom, but accumulating in the Very Cheap region has worked wonderfully in every previous Bitcoin bear market. The hard part now is remaining disciplined and sticking to the plan we laid out months ago even while our emotions and narratives try to make us do the opposite.

I sold my Strategy and Strive for Bitcoin this morning. I have decided that I don’t want to publicly endorse any Bitcoin Treasury companies or any other higher risk forms of Bitcoin exposure. I will just focus on accumulating Bitcoin over the next few months and will look for opportunities on altcoins that I believe will do well next cycle. I still believe Strategy and Strive will do well in the long-term, I just don’t want to complicate my plan or portfolio at this stage of the cycle.

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I hope you have an amazing week and the future looks bright. 🤝