After another green week, Bitcoin closed above our Range High at $76k. This is a confirmed breakout from the trading range we have been in over the past few months. This doesn’t mean price must go higher, but it does mean the probability of price rising has greatly increased now that we are above resistance. This is when sidelined investors really start to feel FOMO, but because we accumulated at lower prices, we can just sit back and see how high Bitcoin decides to go.

Market sentiment remains in Neutral. I expect it to return to Greed if Bitcoin can maintain this strength, but for now, remaining in Neutral allows more room for upside. It looks as though accumulating during Extreme Fear worked out for us once again. Now it’s time to keep our FOMO in check and remind ourselves that Bitcoin is still in a downtrend on the larger timeframes and we haven’t gotten confirmation of a new bull market quite yet.

It’s great to see The GLI back near its highs, but we have not seen new highs quite yet. Bitcoin seems to be following The GLI higher here, but we really want to see new highs for The GLI before getting too excited. As long as The GLI keeps trending higher, I will remain open-minded to 2026 playing out differently than previous Bitcoin mid-term years where liquidity was tightening.

We will be receiving an update to the FED’s preferred measure of inflation, Core PCE, on Thursday, April 30th. This is an especially important print because it will tell us what impact the geopolitical conflict and subsequent increase in energy prices has been having on inflation throughout the economy. The Market is expecting a YoY print of 3.2% which is a slight increase from the 3% YoY print last month. We want this print to be at or lower than market expectations so more rate cuts can be priced in and the Dollar can continue weakening.

Bitcoin is still in the Cheap region. I’d love to see this rally make it into Fair Value and retest the pivotal 50W moving average, but I’m not sure it’ll be able to get that high. If it does, it will give us the perfect opportunity to see if Bitcoin has what it takes to shift the trend back to bullish and break its 4-year cycle, but until that happens, we have to assume it will act as resistance on the first test.

No changes were made to my portfolio this week. All my allocations are near their targets so there is no need to update anything. I have some dry powder set aside incase we are granted a better buying opportunity later this year, but I also have plenty of upside exposure to enjoy this rally without FOMO or stress. This is the main benefit of having a strategy that doesn’t over-optimize for one potential outcome, but instead makes sure we are prepared for multiple.

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I hope you have an amazing week and the future looks bright. 🤝