After another red week, Bitcoin closed its weekly candle just under $73.6k. This confirms a false breakout and puts Bitcoin back in our $60k to $76k trading range. The next major area of interest is the range mid at $68k and it’s likely that we will see some chop and consolidation over the next few weeks. Bulls had their chance to show strength at the $76k support level, but bears proved that they are still in control for now.

Market sentiment remains in fear. This isn’t surprising given the recent price action. I still find it interesting that the fear and greed index made a higher in April after only lower highs since March of 2024. It could be an early sign that the trend is shifting and we should look for a higher low on the fear and greed index later this year for our bear market bottom. Regardless, it’s important to remember that it is completely normal and common to feel fearful at this stage of the bear market so having a plan and not relying on our emotions remains incredibly valuable.

The GLI was perfectly spot on with Bitcoin’s recent local bottom in February and local top in May. I like using it for general trend as part of my analysis, but it is hard to ignore how well it has worked these past few months. Right now it is calling for a local bottom around mid-June. Hard to know if Bitcoin will keep following it perfectly, but it does support our summer chop and consolidation thesis. What I really want to see is The GLI making new highs because that would give us further confirmation that Bitcoin will find a bottom and start trending higher later this year.

We will be receiving an update to the FED’s preferred measure of employment, the Unemployment Rate, on Friday, June 5th. The labor market has been quite resilient over the past few prints so we want to see that pattern continue. The market is expecting the Unemployment Rate to remain at 4.3% YoY so we want to see that number or lower on this print. Remember that stubborn inflation with a strong labor market is a much better scenario than stubborn inflation with a weak labor market so the market would rather see a strong print on Friday even if it means lower rate cut odds.

Bitcoin continues to follow our base case almost perfectly when it comes to timing, but Bitcoin has been weaker than expected when it comes to price. I would love an opportunity to buy Bitcoin as low as possible later this year, but I’m still not convinced we will see a normal bear. It looks like we were spot on with our assumption that the short bear scenario was the least likely to occur. Now we just need to wait and see what buying opportunities Bitcoin grants us later this year.

I sold some more Ethereum for the same reason I cut my Solana exposure last week. Bitcoin price action continues to look weak and many metrics seem to be aligning for a sell-off to lower prices. I am comfortable holding Bitcoin through the storm, but Solana and Ethereum have been exceptionally weak against Bitcoin during our most recent February to May relief rally. I plan to focus on Bitcoin for now and will look to buy the winning altcoins when the right market conditions return.

P.S. If you made it to the end of this report, thank you for reading and I hope you got some value from it. If you liked this report, you’ll love the Market Enjoyers program and community. You can learn more about it here:

I hope you have an amazing week and the future looks bright. 🤝