After another week of chop and uncertainty, Bitcoin closed its weekly candle just under $68k. This means Bitcoin closed back below our $69k pivot level once again. It’s clear that the market remains indecisive on where Bitcoin should be trading which is understandable given the geopolitical uncertainty. Investors trying to trade this choppy range have been on an emotional rollercoaster over the past few weeks while more long-term oriented accumulators have been patiently waiting for this chop to resolve. I’m glad to be part of the latter group.

Market sentiment is back to being fearful. Investors are still nervous that Bitcoin may head lower if this geopolitical situation continues and last week’s selloff did not help with those fears. The correction in stocks and precious metals likely added to those concerns as well. During these time periods, it is incredibly important to have a plan or system that can be followed without relying on emotions to make the right decisions.

The GLI is starting to bounce here now that The US Dollar and Oil have sold off a little recently. The geopolitical situation is the main driver of liquidity conditions right now so all we can do is patiently wait for it to resolve. If the geopolitical situation does resolve soon, energy prices and The US Dollar will likely head lower and send The GLI higher which would be a strong tailwind for our risk assets. Until that happens, patience and discipline will be key to make sure we don’t make any drastic changes to our portfolios that we end up regretting.

The recent strengthening of The US Dollar is the main driver of the recent decline we have seen in The GLI. We really want to see the US Dollar continue to selloff and breakdown below the 2025 low at $96.4. That would result in a huge increase in The GLI and risk assets would likely follow. However, a break above our old Range Low at $100.9 would greatly tighten liquidity and put downward pressure on risk assets. Unfortunately, it is very hard to predict which way the The US Dollar will breakout since it relies very heavily on the outcome of this geopolitical situation. All we can do for now is monitor the situation and react accordingly.

The base case is still a shallow bear market in 2026. The rest of this year will definitely depend on how long this geopolitical situation goes on for, but I expect it to resolve sooner rather than later. High energy prices is bad for everyone so there will be immense pressure to find a solution as soon as possible. It is possible that we get a normal Bitcoin bear market with the standard drawdown if this situation extends for a few more months, but I have a hard time seeing how that would happen given how much the higher energy prices are already negatively impacting economies globally.

No changes were made to my portfolio this week. Now that my allocations are near or at their targets for this price region, there are no changes left to make. All that’s left to do now is wait for lower prices to accumulate more if that opportunity is granted by the market or wait for higher prices to take profits if we do get an impressive relief rally. In the meantime, I will do the hardest thing that any trader/investor ever has to do, which is to do nothing.

P.S. If you made it to the end of this report, thank you for reading and I hope you got some value from it. If you’d like to view my exact portfolio changes, my entire portfolio outside of just crypto and would like to learn more about my Portfolio Automation System, checkout the Crypto Enjoyers program and community. You can learn more about it here:

I hope you have an amazing week and the future looks bright. 🤝