After another green week, Bitcoin closed right above $86.5k. It seems to be consolidating below our $88k Range Mid. So far there are no signs of weakness in terms of how Bitcoin is trading. The bulls continue to maintain control and the bears have not been able to put up much of a fight so far. Feels great being positioned for upside and seeing this type of price action.

Market sentiment remains in Greed. This consolidation is helping to cool sentiment and shakeout investors while Bitcoin creates the foundation for its next move higher. In a bear market, Greed is quite rare, but in a bull market Greed is the norm. So the fact that we are seeing extended time spent in the Greed region further solidifies that there has been a regime change here recently and that this move higher should be taken seriously.

The GLI has been trending down recently. This means that we will likely see a pullback in December. We still have plenty of time between now and then so we’ll monitor price action and The GLI over the next few weeks, but it is nice to mentally prepare this far in advance. Pullbacks are a normal part of bull markets so we should make sure that we can handle them. Ideally, we want to see The GLI bottom and start to head higher as soon as possible because the shorter the decline the shallower we can expect Bitcoin’s pullback to be.

The US Dollar has broken out above our Range Low. This strength in the US Dollar is what has been putting downward pressure on The GLI. We want to see the US Dollar top and head lower sometime soon so that we can see The GLI bottom and head higher. In the meantime, we will just monitor the US Dollar and look for signs of strength or weakness in its price action. Right now it is testing its 200W MA so we’ll see if bears can put up a fight there.

Now that we have entered October, it seems as though our Shallow Bear base case was spot on. A higher low later this year is still very possible, but the new lows in October that the 4-year cycle crew became overly attached to seems to not be playing out. We would have been fine regardless because we made sure to prepare for multiple outcomes, but it is always great when the base case that we were most positioned for plays out.

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I hope you have an amazing week and the future looks bright. 🤝