After briefly trading below the 200W MA last week, Bitcoin was able to close back above it at just under $64k. Bias remains to the upside here since we have that clear False Breakdown below $60k. Not to mention the favorable July seasonality that Bitcoin usually experiences in mid-term years. Patience and thinking long-term continues to be the best way to navigate this choppy summer price action.

Market sentiment remains in Fear. Investors are still quite nervous that Bitcoin will be heading lower soon which is the exact sentiment we would expect given the price action we have experienced over the past few months. Buying during Fear is something we need to get used to as investors. If buying during the best opportunities were easy, everyone would do it and successfully navigate markets. Going against our emotions and remaining disciplined is the challenge we get rewarded for overcoming when the good times return.

The GLI is starting to bounce a bit here, which could be a great sign for Bitcoin’s Q4 bottom. We want to see it make new highs before getting too excited, but a bounce is definitely a step in the right direction. We know The GLI has to go up in the long-term, but the short and medium-term tightening windows are what we have to survive and risk manage to be able to enjoy the long-term trend.

We will be receiving an update to the FED’s preferred measure of CPI, Core CPI, on Tuesday, July 14th. This is an important print because the market and the FED have been very concerned with inflation ever since the energy price shock driven by geopolitical tensions. The market is expecting the YoY number to drop from 2.9% to 2.8% which would be a step in the right direction for markets. We really want the print to come in at or below those expectations so rate hike expectations go down.

The Shallow Bear scenario remains my base case for Bitcoin. We are already seeing clear signs of demand here at the 200W MA and $60k area so it’s hard for me to imagine Bitcoin going significantly lower from here. Especially because we had a less explosive bull market last year with less froth to wash out. I’m still prepared for a Normal Bear scenario where Bitcoin goes quite a bit lower, but the likelihood of that outcome continues to decrease with each passing week.

No changes were made to my portfolio this week. I am happy with my spot exposure given where I think we are in this bear market and I’d be quite happy if the market were to skyrocket from here. I’m also happy with the remaining dry powder I have being set aside for better opportunities incase we get some later this year. I feel well positioned for multiple outcomes which I believe it the best way to navigate markets. Now we just have to remain patient and disciplined enough to see things through.

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I hope you have an amazing week and the future looks bright. 🤝